PROBABILISTIC ENHANCEMENT OF AN ISLAND NETWORK USING RELIABILITY-CENTERED MAINTENANCE

Abstract

The maintenance of electrical island networks presents major reliability and performance challenges. Traditional methods often overlook the probabilistic nature of failures, leading to avoidable outages. This study proposes an enhanced Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM) framework using FMEA-AHP methodology for island networks. An existing network was modelled in ETAP using equipment data and maintenance history from the IEEE Std-493 Gold Book and the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemical (DPRP) Captive Power Plant. ETAP simulations quantified energy losses and annual failure rates. Critical equipment was identified using the Pareto Principle, and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) determined failure modes. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) prioritized high-impact failures, guiding task selection. Implementing ETAP-based reliability assessment combined with RCM, FMEA, and AHP resulted in a 56.36% reduction in interruption duration and a 64.87% reduction in failure rate. A structured preventive maintenance framework was developed to optimize strategies, reduce costs, and improve system reliability in island networks.